With Fed’s Powell joining the league of the ECB policymakers to placate the bond bears, who ultimately failed, EURUSD bears cheer downside break of 100-day SMA for the first in over four months. However, February lows seem to question the further weakness of the pair ahead of the key US employment data for February, led by the NFP. While it is mostly expected to keep the US dollar on the front foot, a horizontal area since October 2021, around 1.1890-80, followed by the 200-day SMA level of 1.1800, will be the tough nuts to crack for the sellers.
Meanwhile, any corrective pullback needs not only to cross the 100-day SMA level of 1.2030 but the previous support line from November, at 1.2050, to convince EURUSD buyers. Should the US dollar fail to recover around 1.2050, 1.2185 and February’s top near 1.2245 will be in the spotlight. Overall, EURUSD is ready to challenge the medium-term uptrend but needs validation from today’s US jobs report.