AUDUSD extends the previous day’s retreat from the weekly top towards the bottom line of a three-week-old descending triangle surrounding 0.6285, tested twice in October. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI (14) line is nearly oversold and hence challenges the Aussie bears around the key support. The same highlights the probability of witnessing a bounce from 0.6285 support but the recovery remains elusive unless the quote confirms the aforementioned bullish triangle, by crossing the 0.6390 upside hurdle. Even so, the 200-SMA and a downward-sloping resistance line stretched from early August, close to 0.6400 and 0.6440 respectively at the latest, will test the Aussie bulls before giving them control.
Meanwhile, a downside break of the stated 0.6285 key support will need validation from the November 2022 low of around 0.6270 to keep the AUDUSD bears on the table. In that case, the 0.6200 round figure and the previous yearly low of around 0.6170 could lure the pair sellers. In a case where the pair remains weak past 0.6170, it becomes vulnerable to drop toward the April 2020 bottom of around 0.5980.
That said, softer Aussie Employment Change and Participation Rate join the broad US Dollar recovery to weigh on the AUDUSD pair. However, the downside room appears limited.