AUDUSD bounces off 50-DMA, following a retreat from the 3.5-month-old previous support line. The recovery moves fail to justify the downbeat oscillators and Aussie data, which in turn keep sellers hopeful. That said, a daily closing below the stated short-term moving average, around 0.6880 by the press time, could convince the Aussie bears. However, the 200-DMA surrounding the 0.6800 threshold becomes crucial support as it lured buyers earlier in January. Should the quote manages to break the 200-DMA, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the previous monthly low near 0.6685 and then towards the late 2022 swing lows around 0.6630 and 0.6580 can’t be ruled out.
Meanwhile, the AUDUSD rebound needs to run a successful show beyond the support-turned-resistance line from November, close to the 0.7000 psychological magnet. Following that, the Aussie buyers may aim for the 0.7050 level before challenging the all-important 0.7135-55 resistance area comprising multiple tops marked since August 2022. It’s worth observing that the pair’s sustained break of 0.7155 won’t hesitate to cross the mid-2022 top surrounding 0.7285 and brace for the previous yearly high near 0.7660.
Overall, AUDUSD is all set to reverse the late 2022 run-up but a clear downside break of 200-DMA becomes necessary.