EURUSD posted the biggest daily slump in six months as Credit Suisse headlines fanned risk aversion on Wednesday. The fall, however, needs validation from the 1.0555-50 support confluence, comprising the 100-DMA and 14-week-old ascending support line, as well as the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Monetary Policy Meeting. That said, a clear break of 1.0550, accompanied by a disappointment from the ECB could quickly drag the major currency pair towards the 200-DMA support of 1.0320. However, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s September 2022 to February 2023 upside, near 1.0460, could act as an intermediate halt during the anticipated slump.
On the contrary, recovery moves require hawkish commentary, as well as a rate hike decision, from the ECB to aim for the 50-DMA hurdle surrounding 1.0725. Following that, the mid-February swing high of around 1.0810 could test the EURUSD bulls ahead of directing the run-up towards the previous monthly high, as well as the 2023 peak, of near 1.1035.
Overall, EURUSD is on the bear’s radar but the quote’s further downside hinges on the key fundamental events and important support zone break.