With the US Dollar’s failure to cheer upbeat PMI details, the EURUSD pair managed to rebound from an upward-sloping support line from early November, especially when the activity data from Germany and the Eurozone came in positive. The recovery moves, however, failed to cross the 50-SMA hurdle on a daily closing basis and tease sellers ahead of the all-important monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB). While the bloc’s central bank is likely to keep the monetary policy unchanged, the focus will be on the signals for future rate cuts as market players expect the first rate cut before June but the policymakers appeared hesitant for the same of late.
That said, any hawkish clues will allow the Euro pair to cross the immediate upside hurdle, namely the 50-SMA hurdle surrounding 1.0920. However, the support-turned-resistance line stretched from November 01, close to 1.0985 at the latest, will precede the 1.1000 psychological magnet to challenge the pair buyers before giving them control.
Meanwhile, the downbeat RSI conditions and the limited odds of favoring the ECB hawks suggest further weakening of the pair. The same highlights the aforementioned nine-week-old ascending trend line support line, near 1.0830 by the press time. It’s worth noting that the monthly low of 1.0820 and the previous monthly low of around 1.0720 will act as additional downside filters before a smooth sailing toward the late October swing high of near 1.0700.
