EURUSD bulls struggle at a weekly high while waiting for inflation clues from Germany and the US, as well as the Fed Minutes, on Wednesday. That said, an upside break of the 21-day SMA and bullish oscillators keep Euro buyers hopeful. However, a three-month-old falling resistance line and a horizontal region comprising multiple levels marked since late May, around 1.0620-35, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls. Should the upcoming data fail to inspire the US Dollar bulls and allow the quote to cross the 1.0635 hurdle on a daily closing basis, a run-up toward the mid-September swing high of near 1.0770 can’t be ruled out. Following that, the 200-day SMA surrounding 1.0825 will be the last defense of the bears.
On the contrary, the EURUSD pullback needs validation from the 21-day SMA level of 1.0600 and the scheduled data/events. Should the Euro sellers return, a fortnight-long horizontal support zone of around 1.0500 can test the bears before directing them to the yearly low of near 1.0450. In a case where the quote remains weak past 1.0450, the August 2022 peak of near 1.0370 and the late November 2022 low of near 1.0220 can lure the sellers.
Overall, the EURUSD pair is likely to consolidate the previous monthly losses but the road towards the north is long and bumpy.