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MTrading Team • 2024-02-14

GBPUSD bears keep 1.2500 on radar, UK inflation eyed

GBPUSD bears keep 1.2500 on radar, UK inflation eyed

GBPUSD licks its wounds around 1.2600 early Wednesday as traders await the UK inflation clues for January. That said, the Cable pair marked a stellar move the previous day, initially rising to a seven-day high before posting the biggest daily loss in a week while reversing from the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA). It should be noted that Tuesday’s reversal from 50-EMA also defends the Pound Sterling’s early month break of a 12-week-old rising support line, now resistance around 1.2685. Additionally, the bearish MACD signals and an absence of the oversold RSI (14) also keep the pair sellers hopeful. However, a convergence of the 200-EMA and multiple levels marked since early December 2023, close to 1.2520-2500, appears a tough nut to crack for the pair bears. In a case where the prices drop below 1.2500, the mid-November 2023 swing low of around 1.2375 will be in the spotlight.

Alternatively, the strong UK inflation numbers could allow the GBPUSD pair to have another battle with the 50-EMA and the aforementioned support-turned-resistance, respectively near 1.2635 and 1.2675. If at all the Cable bulls manage to keep the reins past 1.2675, a downward-sloping resistance line from January 12, close to 1.2770 by the press time, will be the final defense of the pair sellers. Following that, the late 2023 peak of near 1.2830 and the 1.3000 psychological magnet will lure the Pound Sterling buyers.

Overall, the GBPUSD pair remains bearish unless staying below 1.2675, especially when the US inflation data appears more lucrative to the Fed hawks. Even so, the Bank of England (BoE) officials have been optimistic of late and hence today’s UK inflation clues will be closely observed for clear directions.

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