The market remains cautious early Wednesday as traders await key U.S. data, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, and Nvidia Q3 earnings. Recent U.S. data was mostly unchanged, helping the United States Dollar (USD) edge higher on hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, while mixed geopolitical and trade headlines added to the cautious tone.
ADP weekly U.S. employment data improved to –2.5K for the four-week average from –11.25K last week, still negative but better. U.S. factory orders met expectations at 1.4%, durable goods orders were little changed from the first pre-shutdown release, and the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) November housing index rose to 38 from 37.
Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said the Fed is facing conflicting signals on stable inflation and maximum employment and warned that without stronger data, it will be difficult to agree on a possible December rate cut.
Donald Trump said he has chosen the next Federal Reserve Chair without naming the candidate. He said investment in Artificial Intelligence (AI) is making the U.S. Economy the “hottest” globally, but warned that excessive state-level regulation threatens this growth. Trump said China remains on schedule with U.S. farm purchases but wants faster buying. A Reuters poll showed his approval rating falling to 38%, the lowest since returning to the White House.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that $2,000 checks for Americans could fuel inflation, saying, “Maybe we can persuade Americans to save that,” complicating the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) path toward any sustained rate cuts.
The White House announced new weapons sales to Saudi Arabia and an Artificial Intelligence (AI) Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) after Trump met the Saudi Crown Prince, calling these deals major steps in expanding defense, trade, technology, and strategic cooperation, with stronger trade engagement expected.
Axios reported that the U.S. is secretly drafting a new plan to end the Ukraine war with coordination between the Trump administration and Russia. U.S. Army Secretary Driscoll and Chief of Staff General George made an unannounced visit to Ukraine to meet military leaders, lawmakers, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) on November 25, and the Department of Labor (DoL) confirmed weekly jobless claims for Thursday.
China plans to renew its ban on Japanese seafood imports, keeping China–Japan tensions high.
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda will meet Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and Economic Revitalisation Minister Minoru Kiuchi on Wednesday, following his meeting with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi the previous day on the economy, monetary policy, and currency moves.
A key adviser to Prime Minister Takaichi said the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may delay a rate hike until March, saying policymakers must first assess the impact of the ¥20 trillion fiscal package. Former BoJ board member Goushi Kataoka said the supplementary budget will be about ¥20 trillion, much larger than last year’s ¥13.9 trillion, and could justify a March hike if effective.
Japan’s September Core Machinery Orders rose 4.2% month-on-month (expected 2.5%) and 11.6% year-on-year (expected 5.4%).
Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill said underlying inflation in the United Kingdom (UK) is weaker than headline levels suggest, but warned against over-interpreting recent data, noting wage growth remains inconsistent with 2% inflation given weak productivity.
The UK Times reported UK Chancellor Reeves is considering measures to protect small businesses and the self-employed from tax increases, likely through business rate changes and possibly adjustments to the employment allowance.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) was steady after Australia’s Wage Price Index for Q3 2025 matched expectations at 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and 3.4% year-on-year. The Westpac Leading Index (WLI) for October rose 0.11% month-on-month, lifting the six-month annualized rate to +0.35% from +0.10%.
New Zealand’s Q3 Producer Price Index (PPI) showed outputs up 0.6% (expected 0.7%) and inputs up 0.2% (expected 0.9%), indicating weaker cost pressures.
Canada’s October housing starts dropped to 232.8K from 265.0K expected.
WTI Crude Oil refreshed its weekly top even as the American Petroleum Institute (API) Weekly Crude Oil Stock rose 4.4 million barrels versus 1.3 million barrels prior, maybe because of the geopolitical woes and stimulus expectations from China and Japan.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) extended its four-day rise, pressuring EURUSD and GBPUSD for the fourth consecutive day. Cryptocurrencies hit multi-day lows before rebounding on Tuesday, but slipped again on Wednesday. AUDUSD, NZDUSD, and USDCAD posted mild Tuesday gains before weakening. Crude Oil is slightly lower after hitting a weekly high. Wall Street ended Tuesday in negative territory, and Gold rebounded from an eight-week support level after a three-day decline.
With the U.S. Dollar (USD) turning lackluster on a key day, EURUSD steadied after a three-day losing streak but remains under pressure. USDJPY also paused its three-day rise, posting mild losses after hitting its highest level since February. Concerns about a possible Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike and ongoing Japan stimulus discussions helped halt USDJPY’s advance, while EURUSD is consolidating losses ahead of European Union (EU) inflation data and the key U.S. data and events mentioned earlier.
Cautious remarks from Bank of England (BoE) officials, broad risk aversion, and a guarded mood ahead of the November 26 UK budget and today’s UK inflation kept GBPUSD under pressure for a fourth straight day, despite a lackluster United States Dollar (USD) after a three-day winning streak. Additionally, uncertainty over the UK’s cryptocurrency (crypto) ventures and mixed sentiment around the UK’s economic transition continue to weigh on GBPUSD.
Despite mostly positive data from Australia, New Zealand, and Canada, alongside a pause in the United States Dollar (USD) and a pullback in crude oil prices, the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD), and Canadian Dollar (CAD) remain under pressure amid mixed market sentiment. China’s stimulus and expectations of no further rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), and Bank of Canada (BoC) in 2025 have failed to attract AUDUSD and NZDUSD buyers or USDCAD sellers, likely due to persistent hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets.
Gold (XAU) posted mild gains, extending the previous day’s rebound from an eight-week support, as traders sought a traditional haven amid uncertainty ahead of key United States (U.S.) data and events. However, hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets continue to challenge XAUUSD bulls.
Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil struggled after hitting a weekly high, with the pullback linked to rising inventories reported by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and mixed geopolitical developments.
Major U.S. indices closed lower after failing to sustain a midday rebound, pressured by anxiety over Nvidia and downbeat news from Cloudflare that disrupted multiple major websites the previous day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 1.07%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.83%, and the NASDAQ Composite slipped 1.21%.
In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC) bounced off a six-month low, while Ethereum (ETH) recovered from its lowest level since July before retreating early Wednesday. Crypto pessimism is linked to sustained ETF outflows, a firmer U.S. Dollar (USD), and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) is preparing regulatory guardrails for systemic stablecoins as the United Kingdom (UK) moves toward a regulated “multi-moneyverse.” Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden said a consultation paper will outline oversight for sterling-denominated systemic stablecoins as they approach mainstream adoption.
Wednesday promises a busy session, with UK and Eurozone inflation data ahead of the key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes and the highly anticipated Q3 earnings from Nvidia.
Equity and AI-hardware sentiment hinges on whether Nvidia beats its above-guidance expectations and delivers a strong Q4 outlook; any disappointment could trigger a broader market pullback.
Amid the prevailing risk-off mood, hawkish FOMC Minutes combined with mixed Nvidia results could push the USD higher, weighing on risk assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, gold may edge up on safe-haven demand, while technology shares are likely to trade in a range, as Nvidia reports after market close.
May the trading luck be with you!
