GBPUSD bears take a breather after a two-week downtrend as the quote bounces off the lowest level since mid-November 2023. In doing so, the Pound Sterling takes a U-turn from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its run-up from October 2023 to February 2024, also known as the “Golden Fibonacci Ratio”, while justifying the traders’ consolidation ahead of this week’s key UK/US catalysts. That said, the oversold RSI line and a receding bearish bias on the MACD favor the quote’s further rebound, which in turn highlights the monthly falling wedge bullish chart formation. However, the pair’s successful trading beyond 1.2440 becomes necessary to lure the buyers. Even so, a 4.5-month-old previous support line and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), respectively near 1.2545 and 1.2560, will be the key upside hurdles to test the Cable’s north-run.
On the contrary, the aforementioned key Fibonacci retracement support restricts the immediate downside of the GBPUSD pair to around 1.2360. Following that, the stated falling wedge’s bottom line, near 1.2345 at the latest, quickly followed by the October 2023 peak of 1.2337, could act as the final defense of the Pound Sterling buyers before surrendering to the sellers. In that case, the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio surrounding 1.2220 will be in the spotlight before the late 2023 bottoms around 1.2070 and 1.2037.
Overall, the GBPUSD pair’s corrective bounce appears overdue but the road toward the north will be long and bumpy.
