Early Friday, market mood stays mixed but mildly positive as U.S. President Donald Trump’s 10-day Iran ceasefire push clashes with Tehran’s reluctance to accept the initial U.S. offer. At the same time, Strait of Hormuz supply risks, major central bank rate concerns, and fears of a longer Iran war are keeping traders cautious.
After regular U.S. trading on Thursday, Trump delayed planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure by 10 days to April 6, saying talks with Iran are “going very well.” That helped ease fears of an immediate energy-sector escalation and a wider supply shock through the Strait of Hormuz.
Still, the outlook remains uncertain. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) said mediators denied that Iran formally requested the pause, while CNN reported that Trump faces narrowing military options and that the Pentagon is considering up to 10,000 additional troops for the Middle East as Washington balances pressure with diplomacy.
Even so, tensions remain elevated after reports of missile attacks on American bases in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and explosions at U.S. sites in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
Iran is also said to view the U.S. proposal as too strict, especially on missiles and regional support, though it remains open to softer terms. For now, the worst-case scenario is avoided, but markets still face another 10 days of threats, leaks, and military risks, with little hope of a near-term Strait of Hormuz reopening.
Fed officials rang hawkish alarms even as the U.S. Jobless Claims flashed upbeat numbers, which in turn helped the U.S. Dollar to end Thursday on a positive note. That said, Fed officials Lisa Cook, Michael Barr, and Philip Jefferson backed the “higher for longer” rate view, warning that energy-driven inflation could delay rate cuts, while Stephen Miran offered a more dovish tone.
Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Narelle has disrupted around 8% of global LNG supply from Australia, while New Zealand’s March consumer confidence fell about 10%, and the country activated the first stage of a four-step fuel contingency plan.
Against this backdrop, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) pauses its three-day rise and trades slightly lower. EURUSD and GBPUSD rebound, USDJPY drops, while AUDUSD and NZDUSD trim weekly losses, and USDCAD retreats from a two-month high. Meanwhile, crude oil eyes a third straight daily gain, gold pares weekly losses, cryptocurrencies stay under pressure, and Asia-Pacific equities trade mixed after Wall Street’s weak lead.
EURUSD and GBPUSD snap a three-day losing streak, while USDJPY posts its first daily loss in four after retreating from a one-week high. The U.S. Dollar’s pullback appears to be driving these moves, as the key negatives surrounding the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK) remain intact, while traders stay unconvinced by the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) hawkish stance and fears of Japan’s market intervention to support the Japanese Yen (JPY).
Europe also remains under pressure as Gulf refining damage and disrupted liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows tighten supply and lift inflation risks. Italy is seeking more gas from Algeria to offset lost LNG flows from Qatar, while Iran has shown some openness to vessel transit requests from Spain through the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama warned that authorities are ready to act if volatility worsens and confirmed a Group of Seven (G7) finance ministers’ call, keeping intervention concerns alive as pressure on the JPY persists.
Beyond the usual U.S. Dollar weakness, upbeat data from China also helped AUDUSD and NZDUSD post a corrective rebound, while pulling USDCAD back from a multi-day high. Stronger crude oil prices, a key support for Canada’s export-driven economy, and hawkish remarks from a Bank of Canada (BoC) official also added downside pressure on USDCAD.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that industrial profits rose 15.2% year-on-year (YoY) in January–February 2026, sharply higher than 2025’s 0.6% growth, although geopolitical tensions and rising costs continue to cloud the outlook. At the same time, China’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are on track for their lowest level since 2018.
In Canada, BoC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers warned that structural shifts in the economy will be difficult to manage. In India, authorities cut excise duties on petrol and diesel while maintaining the windfall tax on diesel exports.
Gold rises nearly 2.0% early Friday, recovering from its biggest daily drop in more than a week as a softer U.S. Dollar and renewed safe-haven demand support the metal amid market uncertainty. Even so, the yellow metal remains on track for a third straight weekly loss as higher interest rate fears, the broader strength of the U.S. Dollar, and lingering concerns about major gold consumers India and China continue to weigh on sentiment.
Oil edges higher even as the immediate risk premium cools, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude holding above USD 93 per barrel. Mixed signals surrounding the Iran ceasefire and the possible return of normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz appear to be driving near-term crude oil moves.
Elsewhere, Asia-Pacific equities trade mixed despite heavy losses on Wall Street, likely supported by Trump’s 10-day Iran ceasefire delay and Tehran’s willingness to consider conditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for allied ships.
On Wall Street, the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.38%, led by steep losses in chip stocks. Meta Platforms dropped 7.92%, Nvidia lost 4.16%, Broadcom fell 2.95%, Micron Technology declined 6.97%, Intel dropped 6.53%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) slid 7.96%. The Nasdaq Composite is now down 10.87% from its all-time high and 7.89% year-to-date. The S&P 500 fell 1.74%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) lost 1.01%.
Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies remain under pressure as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) stay on track for weekly losses despite quiet trading on Friday, with broad market uncertainty continuing to weigh on sentiment.
Looking ahead, markets will closely track U.S. President Donald Trump’s scheduled weekend appearances at the Future Investment Initiative on Friday at 17:30 EST, the MAGA Inc. meeting on Saturday at 18:30 EST, and his address to farmers on Sunday at 12:30 EST.
Friday’s calendar will also feature speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, along with the final March reading of the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index. Even so, the main focus will remain on Trump’s remarks and the ongoing U.S.-Iran talks.
If the Iran ceasefire extends beyond Trump’s 10-day pause, risk assets may recover further, which could add to the broader market consolidation, weigh on the U.S. Dollar, and help major currencies trim weekly losses. The same may also support equities and cryptocurrencies after recent losses, while Gold is less likely to see a sharp drop, even if its upside also appears limited.
May the trading luck be with you!
