NZDUSD drops the most among the G10 currency pairs while reversing the previous weekly gains, the first in four, as market players show a lack of conviction in the hawkish speech from Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr. It’s worth noting that a long holiday season in China also allowed the Kiwi pair traders to consolidate the previous week’s upside ahead of the US inflation data, scheduled for release on Tuesday. However, Friday’s falling wedge confirmation and bullish MACD signals, as well as the upbeat RSI (14) line, favor the quote’s gradual rise unless it slips back beneath the 0.6100 resistance-turned-support. Even so, the 100-SMA and the stated bullish chart pattern’s lower line, respectively near 0.6075 and 0.6030, quickly followed by the 0.6000 psychological magnet, will challenge the pair sellers before giving them control.
Meanwhile, fresh buying in the NZDUSD pair can wait for a clear upside break of a five-week-old horizontal resistance surrounding 0.6175-80. Following that, the mid-January swing high of around 0.6280 and the late 2023 peak of near 0.6370 will lure the Kiwi pair buyers. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 0.6370, the theoretical target of the falling wedge breakout, namely around 0.6450, will be in the spotlight.
Overall, the NZDUSD pair’s latest retreat becomes less attractive unless backed by the downbeat US inflation data, as well as a sustained trading beneath 0.6100.