Rising wedge confirmation, PBOC rate cut lure AUDUSD bears
AUDUSD drops to a three-week low early Monday while printing a six-day losing streak as the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise rate cut. The Chinese central bank’s action pushed the Aussie pair to confirm a 3.5-month-old rising wedge bearish chart formation. However, the 50-SMA support of 0.6670 challenges the sellers of late. That said, the bearish MACD signals and the rising wedge confirmation tease bears ahead of the US/Australia PMIs for July and the US Q2 GDP, not to forget the US Core PCE Price Index that is also known as the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. Hence, a daily closing beneath 0.6670 appears necessary to convince the bears to target the 0.6600 threshold. Following that, the 200-SMA support of 0.6581 can test the downside momentum, along with downbeat RSI conditions, before allowing the sellers to aim for 0.6500 and 0.6400, as well as challenge the yearly peak surrounding 0.6360.
On the flip side, the AUDUSD pair’s recovery remains elusive unless it stays beneath the aforementioned rising wedge’s lower line, now immediate resistance around the 0.6700 round figure. Following that, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of December 2023 to March 2024 upside, near 0.6765, and the monthly high of 0.6798 could test the buyers. It’s worth observing that the rejection of the bearish chart formation, by a daily closing beyond 0.6815, appears a strong signal for the Aussie bulls to challenge the yearly peak of 0.6839.
Overall, AUDUSD appears ready to welcome the bears but a slew of top-tier data/events will be decisive to watch.
