Although a fortnight old rising channel portrays the bull’s command over Brent oil, backed by the fears of a supply crunch, the commodity prices have failed to portray a notable run-up. On top of that, the quote is heading towards a short-term key hurdle surrounding $115.70, comprising a horizontal line from late March and the upper-end of the mentioned channel. That being said, the RSI line also approaches overbought territory, which in turn poses the risk of a pullback move. Even if the energy benchmark rally beyond $115.70, multiple hurdles around $119.00, comprising the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of March 26 to early April fall, as well as the $120.00 threshold could test the buyers.
Meanwhile, the 200-SMA and the support line of the aforementioned channel, respectively near $109.70 and $107.30, put a floor under the short-term downside of Brent oil. It’s worth noting, however, that a clear break of the $107.30 will defy the bullish chart pattern, namely the rising channel, which may direct the bears toward $104.00 and $100.30 before highlighting the $100.00 psychological magnet.