As Moscow proved the Western forecasts right by invading Kyiv, markets players rushed to risk safety on Thursday. The sour sentiment propelled prices of traditional safe-havens, like gold and USD, which in turn caused the EURUSD pair’s slump. The south-run also conquered three-month-old horizontal support around 1.1185-70. The same opened doors for the quote’s further weakness towards refreshing 2022 low, currently around 1.1120. This highlights the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion of the pair’s moves between September 2021 and February 2022, around 1.1000. It should be noted, however, that oversold RSI and the strength of the psychological magnet can trigger the quote’s corrective pullback around 1.1000, if not then late May 2020 swing lows around 1.0870 will be in focus.
That being said, the quote defends the horizontal area from November of late, which in turn teases buyers to aim for the December 2021 lows surrounding 1.1220. Following that, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of September-January declines, around 1.1300, should lure EURUSD bulls. Though, a convergence of the 21 and 50 DMAs, near 1.1330, will be a tough nut to crack for the buyers. On a bit broader scenario, double tops around 1.1480-85 and the monthly peak of 1.1495 act as crucial hurdles for buyer’s entry.
Overall, the US dollar has the further upside to track until the geopolitical issue gets resolved, or at least tamed for the short-term.