EURUSD began the key week by breaking an important support confluence surrounding 1.0200, which includes 100-SMA, 200-SMA and a one-month-old ascending trend line. The bearish bias also takes clues from the downbeat MACD and RSI conditions, confirming further south-run of the major currency pair. That said, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the late June to July downturn, around 1.0100, lures the pair sellers. However, the 1.0000 parity mark appears a tough nut to crack for the bears, which if conquered could make the prices vulnerable to refresh yearly low, currently around 0.9950.
On the flip side, sustained trading beyond the 1.0200 support-turned-resistance needs validation from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.0285 to convince the EURUSD buyers. Even so, a two-month-old horizontal resistance area around 1.0360-65, also comprising the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, will be crucial for the bulls to watch. In a case where the stays beyond 1.0365, the odds of its run-up towards the late June swing high around 1.0490 can’t be ruled out.
Overall, EURUSD is likely to decline further as traders await important fundamental catalysts from the US and Eurozone.