EURUSD holds onto the one-week-old sideways grind ahead of the key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). As a 0.50% rate hike is well-known, as well as priced-in, the Fed will have to supersede market expectations to stay ahead of the curve and keep US dollar on the throne. In that case, the 100% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of February-March, around 1.0485, holds the key to the south-run targeting the 2017’s yearly bottom surrounding 1.0340. However, the 1.0400 threshold will act as an intermediate halt while portraying the Fed’s superpower action.
In a case where the US central banker chose to disappoint markets, by either meeting expectations of a 0.50% rate lift or resisting faster consolidation of policy, the EURUSD pair could witness the much-awaited rebound, as signalled by the oversold RSI line. The following recovery could quickly bounce back beyond the previous support line, around 1.0580, before challenging the 78.6% FE level surrounding 1.0630-35. During the quote’s run-up beyond 1.0635, the 1.0760 level comprising the 61.8% FE acts as the last defence for the buyers.
Overall, EURUSD prices have witnessed notable downside in anticipation of the Fed’s larger-than-life move but an actual outcome will be crucial for the next moves.