GBPUSD stays near the two-year low, despite the post-Fed rebound, as cable traders brace for the Bank of England’s (BOE) 0.25% rate hike. Given the latest hawkish moves from the RBA and the Fed, the “Old Lady’s” heavier-than-expected measures to tame inflation won’t be a surprise. In that case, the pair will witness the much-awaited rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of March 2020 to May 2021 upside towards September 2020 bottom surrounding 1.2675. However, a convergence of the previous support line from March 2021 and 50% Fibo, around 1.2830, appears a tough nut to crack for the pair buyers, a break of which could escalate the recovery moves towards the 200-week SMA surrounding 1.3100.
Alternatively, a disappointment from the BOE will need a clear break of the aforementioned key Fibo support level, near 1.2500, to direct bears towards the June 2020 bottom of 1.2250. In a case where GBPUSD prices remain weak past 1.2250, the May 2020 swing low around 1.2075 will act as the last defense for the buyers as a break of which won’t hesitate to call the 2020’s yearly trough of 1.1409.
To sum up, GBPUSD remains in the hands of bears ahead of the BOE’s monetary policy decision.