NZDUSD picks up bids inside a weekly trading range that restricts the pair’s move after it dropped below a five-week-old ascending trend line and the 200-SMA. Given the quote’s sustained trading below the previous key supports, as well as the bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI (14), the pair is likely to witness further downside. That said, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of July-August upside, near 0.6150, appears immediate rest of the sellers ahead of the yearly bottom marked in July around 0.6060. If the bears dominate past 0.6060, which is most likely, the south-run could well approach the 0.6000 psychological magnet.
Meanwhile, the NZDUSD rebound remains tepid until the quote stays below the convergence of the 200-SMA and the support-turned-resistance line, close to 0.6250. Following that, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near 0.6315 and the August 01 peak surrounding 0.6355 will be on the bull’s radar. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s run-up beyond 0.6355 won’t hesitate to challenge the monthly top close to 0.6470, with the 0.6400 round figure likely acting as an intermediate halt during the rise.
Overall, NZDUSD is on the bear’s radar as RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr is bracing for a speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.