A clear downside break of the 100-DMA, as well as a daily closing below July’s peak, keeps USDJPY sellers hopeful. However, a convergence of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-October upside and an upward-sloping support line from May 24, around 136.00, appears a tough nut to crack for the bears. Following that, a slump toward the 200-DMA support of 132.70 can’t be ruled out. However, an area comprising multiple levels marked since late April, around 131.25-50, could challenge the pair’s further downside.
Alternatively, recovery moves need to stay beyond the 100-DMA support level surrounding 140.75-80 to trigger short-term corrective buying. Even so, 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracements, close to 142.20 and 145.90 in that order, could challenge the USDJPY buyers. In a case where the pair remains firmer past the 146.00 round figure, the odds of witnessing a run-up targeting the fresh 24-year high, currently around 152.00, can’t be ruled out.
Overall, USDJPY sellers hold control but the downside room appears limited.