USDCAD bulls struggle to keep the reins at a five-month high as markets await the all-important Bank of Canada (BoC) Interest Rate Decision and the US ISM Services PMI for August. That said, the nearly overbought RSI and impending bear cross on the MACD checks buyers as they attack a convergence of an 11-month-old descending resistance line and a horizontal region comprising multiple levels marked since late April, close to 1.3640-50. As a result, the pair’s upside appears difficult and hence needs a strong boost from the BoC, as well as US data, to cross the stated hurdle, which in turn could propel prices towards the yearly high marked in March around 1.3865. Following that, the late 2022 peak of 1.3980 and the 1.4000 psychological magnet will gain the market’s attention.
Meanwhile, the USDCAD pullback may initially aim for the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of August-October 2022 upside, near 1.3500, ahead of retesting the 200-DMA support of 1.3465. In a case where the Loonie pair remains bearish past 1.3465, the early July swing high of 1.3385 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement surrounding 1.3200, also known as the Golden Fibonacci ratio, will be on the seller’s radar. Finally, the yearly low marked in July around 1.3090 acts as the last battle point for the buyers, a break of which won’t hesitate to drag the pair below the 1.3000 psychological magnet.
Overall, USDCAD remains bullish but may witness a pullback before the further upside, unless the BoC and US data offer surprises.