USDCAD fades the week-start recovery as market players await Canada inflation data on early Tuesday. In doing so, the Loonie pair defends the previous week’s U-turn from the 100-SMA while retreating towards a two-month-old rising support line. Adding strength to the bearish bias are the downbeat MACD signals and the mostly steady RSI (14). However, the quote’s further downside needs a clear downside break of the aforementioned trend line support, close to 1.3670 by the press time, as well as upbeat prints of the Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) CPI for October. That said, the pair’s sustained downside past 1.3670, backed by strong Canada inflation, could quickly drag prices to the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci ratios of the pair’s September-November upside, respectively near 1.3640 and 1.3570.
Meanwhile, USDCAD buyers need to cross the 100-SMA level of 1.3770 and must get support from the Canada inflation to retake control. Even so, a downward-sloping resistance line from early November, close to 1.3815 at the latest, will act as an extra filter toward the north. Following that, the pair’s run-up toward the monthly high of around 1.3890 and then to the 1.4000 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out.
Overall, USDCAD is likely to remain on the bear’s radar but needs strong Canada inflation data to drop further.