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MTrading Team • 2023-08-17

AUDUSD refreshes yearly low on disappointing Australia jobs report, risk-off mood

AUDUSD refreshes yearly low on disappointing Australia jobs report, risk-off mood

Risk aversion returns to the table during early Thursday as hawkish Fed Minutes join the global economic fears, which in turn propel the yields and initially favored the US Dollar to refresh the monthly top. The same joins downbeat Australian employment data to weigh direct the AUDUSD bears toward the lowest level since November 2022.

Not only does the Aussie pair but the NZDUSD also refreshed the 2023 bottom whereas the other major currencies remain sidelined. It’s worth noting that Chine-inflicted woes propel Yuan prices but the Crude Oil and Gold recently recovered.

Elsewhere, Asia-Pacific equities remain depressed while the US and European stock futures renewed the monthly low before consolidating of late.

Talking about the cryptos, the broad risk-aversion joins industry pessimism to drown the BTCUSD and ETHUSD toward posting a fresh low in two months.

Following are the latest moves of the key assets:

  • Brent oil prints the first daily gains in four while bouncing off two-week low to $84.00 by the press time.
  • Gold price struggles at five-month low, recently firmer around $1,896.
  • USD Index lacks upside momentum around 103.40-50 after refreshing two-month high earlier in the day.
  • Wall Street benchmarks closed with losses while the stocks in the Asia-Pacific zone edged lower. That said, equities in Europe and UK print minor losses by the press time.
  • BTCUSD and ETHUSD remain pressured at the lowest level in two months, near $28,600 and $1,800 at the latest.
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Hawkish Fed concerns, yields propel market fears

Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes showed the policymakers’ concern about the sticky inflation, as well as the readiness to lift the rates if needed, which in turn renews the pessimism that the fragile economic recovery is at risk. Apart from that, geopolitical concerns about China and Russia join Beijing’s struggle to tame the recession woes and Fitch’s downbeat economic projections to weigh on the sentiment.

It should be noted, however, that a lack of major data/events during the European session allows the traders to take a sigh of relief and signals the preparations for the likely risk aversion during the North American session.

On the other hand, uncertainty about the crypto ETFs and the major industry players’ fight with the US SEC weighs on the BTCUSD and ETHUSD, together with the broadly firmer US Dollar.

  • Strong buy: USDCAD
  • Strong sell: ETHUSD, GBPUSD, Gold
  • Buy: USD Index, Nasdaq, USDJPY

Risks are the key…

Although the second-tier activity and job numbers will decorate the US economic calendar and are important considering the hawkish Fed Minutes, major attention will be given to the US Treasury bond yields and the risk headlines. The reason could be the last year’s history when the bond coupons grew past 4.30% and triggered the fears of a global recession. The same could propel the US Dollar and drown prices of gold, AUDUSD and equities.

May the trading luck be with you!