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MTrading Team • 2023-06-05

Oil price cheers OPEC+ verdict, slightly upbeat markets to print three-day uptrend

Oil price cheers OPEC+ verdict, slightly upbeat markets to print three-day uptrend

Global markets begin the trading week on a mildly positive front as US policymakers managed to avoid the debt payment default, despite the initial ruckus. Adding strength to the cautious optimism is the firmer China Caixin Services PMI and hopes of slower rate hikes from the key central banks ex-Fed.

The upbeat sentiment joins the OPEC+ verdict to cut more output in 2024, as well as Saudi Arabia’s push for the same, to allow the Oil price to kick-start the week with a gap-up. It’s worth noting, however, that the firmer US Dollar and the geopolitical fears challenged the energy bulls afterward and trimmed some of the gains around a one-week high.

That said, the US Dollar Index cheers a fresh boost to the hawkish Fed bets, mainly due to Friday’s upbeat US NFP, as well as a recovery in the US Treasury bond yields. With this, the USDJPY and USDCNY remain on the front foot whereas GBPUSD and EURUSD stay depressed at the latest.

Gold price fails to cheer upbeat risk profile and drops for the second consecutive day amid firmer US Dollar. Further, equities in the Asia-Pacific edged higher while shares from Europe and the UK begin the week on a firmer footing.

Elsewhere, Cryptocurrencies bears the burden of the US Dollar even as fundamentals in the industry suggest a rebound in asset prices.

Following are the latest moves of the key assets:

  • Brent oil rises for the third consecutive day to around $78.00 at the latest.
  • Gold price extends post-NFP losses towards $1,940, down 0.50% intraday as we write.
  • USD Index remains firmer around 104.25, stretching the previous day gains towards the multi-week top marked the last week.
  • Wall Street closed in green zone and so did Asia-Pacific shares, as well as the equities in the UK and Europe.
  • BTCUSD and ETHUSD drop nearly 1.0% to around $26,800 and $1,870 by the press time.
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US Dollar gains despite cautious optimism…

With a surprisingly strong US NFP justifying the previous hawkish Fed comments, the odds of the US central bank’s rate hike increase on Friday, grinding higher of late, which in turn allowed the US Dollar to remain firmer at the 2.5-month high marked the last week. Also underpinning the greenback’s demand are the fresh fears of the US-China tussles and the Ukraine-Russia war headlines, not to forget the cautious mood ahead of today’s US PMI and Factory Orders.

While the US Dollar’s strength weighs on the commodities and Antipodeans, as well as the major currencies, Brent Oil and AUDUSD manage to buck the trend with upbeat China PMI and OPEC+ verdict.

That said, hopes of more inflows into the cryptocurrency sector and optimism surrounding Ethereum’s next update fail to inspire BTCUSD and ETHUSD buyers amid a firmer US Dollar.

  • Strong buy: USDCAD
  • Strong sell: ETHUSD, GBPUSD, Gold
  • Buy: USD Index, Nasdaq, USDJPY

US data eyed amid likely sluggish day…

While the US Dollar stays on the front foot, the absence of Fed policymakers’ speeches ahead of next week’s FOMC may allow the greenback to pare some of the latest gains should today’s US ISM Services PMI and Factory Orders fail to impress the greenback buyers. Even if the key data manage to print upbeat outcomes, the market sentiment needs to validate the reaction as the latest improvement in the risk appetite checks the USD bulls.

May the trading luck be with you!