EURUSD: 200-SMA, oversold RSI test bears ahead of ECB, US Retail Sales
Early Wednesday, EURUSD sees the first daily gains in more than a week, after hitting its lowest point in 10 weeks. In doing so, the Euro pair portrays the market’s consolidation ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision and September’s US Retail Sales data.
Sellers have a bumpy road ahead
In addition to pre-data consolidation, the 200-day SMA and oversold RSI pose challenges for EURUSD bears, indicating limited downside potential. A significant drop may occur only if the ECB disappoints or US data delivers unexpectedly strong signals for the dollar.
Technical levels to watch
The 200-SMA level surrounding 1.0870 appears a tough nut to crack for the EURUSD, backed by the oversold RSI. However, a downside break of the same won’t hesitate to drag the prices toward the August month’s low of near 1.0775. Following that, an ascending support line from October 2023, close to 1.0750 at the latest, will act as the final defense of the buyers.
On the contrary, July’s high of near 1.0950 could lure EURUSD buyers during a corrective bounce. Following that, the March peak surrounding 1.0980 and the 1.1000 psychological magnet can entertain Euro buyers before testing them with a two-month-old horizontal support-turned-resistance of near 1.1015 and the previous support line stretched from late June, close to 1.1030.
Price Consolidation Ahead, But No Trend Change Expected
While technical indicators suggest bear exhaustion and a possible corrective bounce for EURUSD, multiple resistances and fundamental factors hinder a reversal of the ongoing two-week bearish trend.
