RBNZ’s dovish halt, downbeat China CPI push NZDUSD to key support
Early Wednesday, NZDUSD prints the biggest daily fall in a fortnight on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) dovish halt, as well as a softer print of China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June. That said, the RBNZ matched market expectations for holding the benchmark rate unchanged but showed readiness to welcome easy monetary policy if inflation slows further. On the other hand, China's CPI dropped to -0.2% MoM and 0.2% YoY in June versus -0.1% and 0.4% market expectations, from -0.1% and 0.3% in that order.
With this, NZDUSD drops more than 0.50% on a day as sellers attack the 200-SMA support of 0.6076. Adjacent to that is strong technical support comprising the 100-SMA and an 11-week-old rising support line, close to 0.6065 by the press time. In a case where the Kiwi pair prints a daily closing beneath 0.6065, a slew of peaks and troughs surrounding 0.6040-35 will test the sellers before directing them to the 0.6000 psychological magnet.
Meanwhile, an impending bull cross on the MACD and downbeat RSI joins the key supports to signal the NZDUSD pair’s corrective bounce, which in turn highlights a three-week-long horizontal resistance area near 0.6150-55. Should the Kiwi pair manage to cross the immediate upside hurdle, the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of the quote’s fall from December 2023 to April 2024, near 0.6175, will precede a six-month-old horizontal resistance zone around 0.6215-22 to act as the final defenses of the bears.
Overall, NZDUSD is likely to witness a corrective bounce but the recovery remains doubtful below 0.6222.
