US President Donald Trump’s refusal to retreat from the global trade war—dismissing the market slump as a "much-needed correction"—keeps market bears wary of further pessimism. Adding to the tension, the White House confirmed that around 50 countries have approached Washington to negotiate tariffs ahead of the scheduled April 9 activation. Traders, however, largely shrugged off Friday’s upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which briefly allowed the US Dollar Index (DXY) to stabilize at multi-month lows. The dollar’s weakness also stemmed from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks, which highlighted concerns about growth amid escalating trade tensions, compounded by geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Ukraine, and China.
Against this backdrop, Asia-Pacific stocks dip, tracking US futures, as risk aversion lifts safe-haven currencies such as the Yen and Swiss Franc. That said, Gold bounces on China demand news and technical support, while the US Dollar stays weak. Further, EURUSD and GBPUSD hold firm, but AUDUSD and NZDUSD struggle amid China jitters and rate cut woes. Moving on, USDCAD wobbles as oil hits a 4-year low, and cryptos remain under pressure at monthly lows, with fading optimism around Trump’s crypto stance.
The Euro (EUR) and Pound (GBP) edge higher, reversing Friday’s pullback from a six-month high, amid a weaker US Dollar and hopes of easing trade tensions support gains. Markets speculate the US may roll back some tariffs, but concerns linger over economic fallout and potential Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, the UK’s tariff cuts on beef and fish boost optimism for a US-UK trade deal, even as EU and ECB officials flag trade war risks.
USDJPY prints mild losses to reverse Friday’s corrective bounce from a six-month low as broad risk-aversion directs traders toward the traditional haven Japanese Yen (JPY). Also fueling the Yen prices could be concerns about Japan’s meddling, mixed data and hawkish BoJ concerns flagged by the Japan central bank policymakers and government officials. Even so, a consecutive second monthly fall in Japan’s real wages put a floor under the USDJPY pair prices.
AUDUSD and NZDUSD plunge to 5-year and 2-month lows, pressured by risk aversion, China’s retaliatory tariffs, and dovish Aussie and Kiwi policy signals. Hints of Chinese stimulus and the US-China trade talks help limit losses. Meanwhile, USDCAD holds defensive after a rebound from 4-month lows, weighed by falling oil prices, US-Canada trade worries, and BoC’s dovish tone.
Gold prices rebounded on Monday, supported by a weaker US Dollar, China's five-month buying spree, and technical support from a bullish channel. In contrast, WTI crude oil sinks to its lowest since 2021, weighed by demand fears from the US-led trade war and concerns over rising OPEC+ supply, after shedding over 12% last week.
Bitcoin drops for a third straight day, hitting its lowest since November 2024, while Ethereum falls to a 25-month low. The slide reflects broader market pessimism fueled by tariff tensions and weak on-chain metrics triggering liquidation.
While Eurozone Retail Sales and US Consumer Credit will headline Monday’s data, all eyes are on the US tariff updates ahead of the April 9 deadline. A surprise softening from the Trump administration could spark a risk-on rally—boosting Gold and the US Dollar, while weighing on safe-havens like JPY and CHF.
Antipodeans may stay directionless amid ongoing US-China tensions, and crude oil remains pressured by weak demand and rising supply fears. Cryptos are unlikely to shake off monthly losses, but equities may stage a sharp rebound.
Looking ahead, US inflation data, the FOMC Minutes, and the RBNZ rate decision will be key drivers this week.
May the trading luck be with you!
